Looking to 2025: Trends in Corn, Soybeans, and Global Trade
Dec 18, 2024
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol has raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. This data implies corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports have risen 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The projected USDA season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Formal and informal import restrictions on grains and oilseeds in China have led to a soybean shortage in the southern regions of the country. Processors have halted operations, awaiting deliveries from ports. The price of soymeal in Guangdong province increased by 7% in just the past week. Amid declining domestic demand, authorities have already restricted the import of corn, then barley and sorghum, and subsequently other crops. The goal is to maintain high domestic prices to stimulate farmers. However, someone must bear the cost, and that is the end consumer. It is clear that China's agricultural production remains highly inefficient.
What has kept soybean futures below the $10-a-bushel mark is the signs of a big soybean crop out of Brazil, which continues to give U.S. soybeans issues with competing on the world stage at competitive prices. In its December WASDE, the USDA said that demand for soybean oil was a positive factor for soybean futures, but supply remains readily available globally.
Many traders are looking ahead to 2025, treading water in trading sessions before the turn of the year.
United Cooperative’s grain projects continue to progress. We are pleased to share that United Cooperative Waupun and Ripon South are open and receiving grain. With the addition of five million bushels of new storage in service, we have the capacity to unload trucks faster, as well as an additional drying capacity to serve your needs.
We look forward to Center Valley being operational soon as well. To complete 9 million bushels of additional storage.
Thank you for your business and the opportunity to serve you.